Forward CLV — did we beat the closing line? — is the only honest test of edge. Every pick is logged at its entry line before tip, the closing line is captured, and results are graded straight from the final, win or lose. Nothing here is hand-picked after the fact.
Forward track — picks locked before tip
Results — all graded picks, including same-day backfill from launch day
Calibration — predicted vs actual hit rate
| Win-prob bucket | Predicted | Actual | | n |
ROI by grade — forward picks only
Tracked best bets — locked at entry, awaiting their games (this is how forward CLV accrues)
| Player | Opp | Market | Pick | Line | Price | Edge | Grade |
Recent results
| Date | Player | Market | Pick | Line | Actual | Result | Entry | CLV |
Entertainment only, 21+. CLV (closing-line value) tracks whether our entry price beat the closing line. Backfill = a pick whose game had already finished when first logged — counted for the record, never for forward CLV.