About The NBA King

What you get

The NBA King grades every NBA player prop — points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks and combos — with a projection, an edge and EV against the market, a confidence rating, hit rates and a clear pick. Around it: interactive shot charts, possession-level lineups and on/off, advanced player profiles, matchups, standings, scores, box scores and a live track record.

Playoff-aware. In the postseason the projections shift off blended regular-season numbers and lean on playoff form, tightened rotations and the slower, matchup-driven pace of bracket basketball — so a Finals number reads like the Finals, not like a random January game. Watch for the 🏆 Playoff mode badge on the Board.

How to read it

• Lean — the side our projection sits on. A description of the projection, not a recommendation.
• Fair % — the market's own probability with the vig removed. This is the market's number, not ours.
• Price improvement vs median — how much cheaper the same bet is at the best book than at the median one, in implied-probability points (1/median − 1/best). Two real posted prices compared to each other.
• ⚠ — marks a prop we've flagged as unreliable (single-book or anomalous line) — skip it.
• Why we no longer publish an edge, an EV or a grade — we graded 389 NBA props against the closing market. The model did not beat the close (beat-close 49.6%, not significant) and the board realized 46.0% against the 57.74% a two-pick play needs; rebounds, assists and threes are each individually below it. Four slate dates is a thin sample, but the same architecture is a measured anti-signal in WNBA over 4,201 graded props. Publishing an edge number would be asserting something the data does not support, so the site shows projections, lines and prices instead.
• Line shopping — click any board row to compare every sportsbook and grab the best number.

The track record

Every pick is logged before tip and graded after the game — win or lose — on the page (record, ROI and closing-line value). It's live and growing; read it small-sample-aware while it builds. Beating the close over the long run is the only honest test, and we hold ourselves to it in public.

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